Hey, it’s Zack.
Sorry for the one day delay. I was locked out of my account yesterday. Let’s get into it.
The World Series is set. Milwaukee and Tampa Bay. One of these teams is about to win the first championship in its history. The other one goes home still waiting. Game 1 is Friday night in Milwaukee, and this week I am previewing the series instead of looking back at the last one.
First, my part in it. Back in September, before any of this started, I picked Tampa Bay to come out of the American League. I also picked the Dodgers to beat them in the World Series. Milwaukee took care of that second part for me by sweeping Los Angeles. So I come into this series half right.
THE ENTRANCE
Milwaukee got here by sweeping the Dodgers in four games. Tampa Bay got here by beating Cleveland in six, finishing it Monday night at home, 7 to 3. Neither team has ever won a World Series. Both teams playing for their first title has not happened in a World Series since 1980, when Philadelphia played Kansas City.
Milwaukee has waited since 1982. That team played in the American League and lost to St. Louis in seven games. Tampa Bay has been here twice and lost both times, to Philadelphia in 2008 and to the Dodgers in 2020. Three trips for the Rays, two for the Brewers, no rings for either one.
There is a money part to this series and it is not small. Milwaukee’s payroll this year was 143.5 million dollars. Tampa Bay’s was 98.3 million. Add them together and you get about 242 million, which is less than the 338 million the Dodgers spent by themselves. The team with the biggest payroll is home. The two teams still playing are the ones built for a lot less.
The schedule is simple. Games 1 and 2 are in Milwaukee on Friday and Saturday. Then the series goes to Tampa Bay for Games 3, 4 and 5 on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, if it lasts that long. Games 6 and 7 would be back in Milwaukee on Friday and Saturday of next week. Milwaukee has home field because it had the best record in baseball this year.
THE DELIVERY
Start with Milwaukee, because how they got here is the story of this postseason. They trailed in all four games against the Dodgers and won all four. No team had ever swept a best of seven that way. In the whole postseason they had six comeback wins in their first eight games, and no team had done that before either.
They play a plain kind of baseball and they play it the same way every night. Put the ball in play. Run the bases. Catch the ball. Pitch. They won 103 games this year, the most in baseball, and they did not change anything when October started. Jake Bauers was the most valuable player of the series against Los Angeles. Garrett Mitchell hit the home run in Game 4 that put them ahead for good. After the sweep, Pat Murphy said the Dodgers may have a bunch of Hall of Famers, but his team has a bunch of gamers. Four games of watching them, it is hard to argue with him this year, even though the Dodgers have gotten the last laugh in prior years.
Tampa Bay is easier to miss, but this is not a lucky team. The Rays won 98 games, the most in the American League. They lost the first game to Cleveland, then won four of the next five. In the last game, Freddy Peralta pitched five and a third innings and gave up one run. Junior Caminero hit a two-run homer in the seventh and Yandy Diaz hit a two-run homer in the eighth. Good pitching, and the right hits at the right time. That is how Tampa Bay has played for years. A year ago this team played its home games in a minor league park because a hurricane damaged its stadium. Now it is four wins from a title.
The one thing hanging over the whole series is rest. Milwaukee played its last game on Thursday. Game 1 is this Friday. That is seven full days off. Since the championship series went to seven games in 1985, only one pennant winner has waited longer. Colorado waited eight days in 2007 and got swept. Tampa Bay played Monday night and gets three days off. Their hitters have seen live pitching all week. Their pitchers have also thrown a lot more innings. Both of those things are true, and this series may turn on which one matters more in the first two games.
THE SAVE
Here is what I will be watching. The first thing is whether Tampa Bay can score first and make it stand up. Getting a lead on Milwaukee has not been the same as beating Milwaukee. Four teams’ worth of Dodgers games just showed that. The Rays need a lead and then they need their bullpen to hold it, because the Brewers do not stop playing when they fall behind.
The second thing is Milwaukee’s timing. A week off is good for a sore arm. It is not good for a hitter’s timing, and it cannot be practiced. Teams play games against their own players during a week like this and it is not the same. The stands are empty and the pitches do not mean anything. The Brewers have two games at home to get their swings back before the series moves to Tampa Bay. If they look slow on Friday, that is why.
The last thing is the end of these games. Somebody in this series is going to stand three outs away from the first championship in the history of their team. There is no way to get ready for that feeling ahead of time. I never got to pitch in that spot. I pitched in big games, pennant races and elimination games in October, but never that one, so I am not going to act like I know exactly how it feels. I only know that the closer a game like that gets, the louder everything around you gets, and the job does not change. Three outs. You find out who can slow it down when it happens.
My pick. I had the Dodgers over Tampa Bay in six before this started, and that pick is gone with the Dodgers. Between the two teams left, I am taking the Brewers in six. Their pitching is rested, their lineup is deeper, and if the series goes long, the last two games are at their place. Tampa Bay is good enough to beat them. This month, good enough has beaten everybody’s pick, including mine.
One way or the other, by Halloween at the latest, a fan base that has never had this is going to get it. Milwaukee has been waiting since 1982. Tampa Bay has been close twice. Somebody’s wait ends this week.
Talk soon, Z
The Save is a personal newsletter based on my own experiences, opinions, and recollections. The opinions expressed here are mine alone and do not represent any team, organization, union or employer past or present. When discussing players, contracts or organizational decisions I am sharing my perspective as a former player — not making legal or financial claims. When I share stories involving others I am telling them from my point of view. When I share tips or lessons I am sharing what worked for me. Always do your own research and consult professionals when making important decisions.