Hey, it's Zack.
Before we get into the races let me highlight the players who owned August. Two hitters. Two pitchers.
AUGUST PERFORMERS
Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | OF
.411 average. 6 home runs. 26 RBI. 1.113 OPS. AL Player of the Month. The 23-year-old was the sixth overall pick in the 2024 draft, out of Florida, and struggled in his first taste of the big leagues last year. August was a different story. He was the best hitter in the AL.
Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | OF
.333 average. 12 home runs. 30 RBI. 31 walks. NL Player of the Month. Harper moved back to right field after the deadline, and the Phillies won 21 games in August, the most of any team in baseball. Harper was the biggest reason why.
Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals | SP
1.87 ERA. 5 starts. AL Pitcher of the Month. Cameron threw a one hit shutout against the Angels on August 16. Two Royals winning monthly awards on a team well out of the playoff race. Kansas City is not winning anything this year but the talent coming through their system is worth paying attention to.
Jesus Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies | SP
1.31 ERA. 46 strikeouts in 34 and a third innings. NL Pitcher of the Month. He allowed two or fewer earned runs in every start. The Phillies had two monthly award winners in August. They are going to need both of them down the stretch.
THE ENTRANCE
The Brewers clinched the NL Central. The Rays clinched the AL East. The Braves clinched the NL East. The Dodgers clinched the NL West. The Yankees clinched a playoff spot. Five teams in with two weeks still to go.
The AL Central is the most compelling race left. The White Sox are 77 and 73. The Guardians are 76 and 75, a game and a half back. We covered the White Sox all season here in The Save. They were the best story in baseball in the first half. Then they faded. Cleveland closed the gap and now this division is going to the wire. The White Sox beat the Guardians 7 and 3 yesterday and still lead by a game and a half. There are 12 games left.
The AL West is one game apart. The Astros are 75 and 75. The Rangers are 74 and 76. Houston has a negative run differential and has been winning games they probably should not be winning. Texas could not reshape its roster at the deadline because of no trade clauses. Neither of these teams looks like a serious October threat right now.
In the NL the Phillies are 83 and 67 and in the wild card. The Padres are 82 and 68 and on an eight game winning streak. The Diamondbacks are 80 and 71 and a game and a half back. Three teams fighting for two spots with two weeks left.
THE DELIVERY
The White Sox collapse is the story of the second half. They were built for this season. Young roster. Legitimate playoff expectations for the first time in years. I was skeptical about the Castillo trade when it went down. It was supposed to anchor the rotation, and it has not worked. The pitching has not been consistent and Cleveland has taken advantage. How they respond to this in the offseason will determine whether 2026 was a stepping stone or a missed opportunity.
Honestly it is hard for any young team to sustain that level of play for a full 162 games. The White Sox ran into that reality in the second half. I did expect them to finish stronger than this. The talent is there and the culture that Getz has been building is real. But September exposed some limitations that come with being a young roster in a pennant race for the first time.
Jumping to the Dodgers, Ohtani concerns me heading into the playoffs. Shut down from pitching again and in a prolonged slump at the plate. The Dodgers are 91 and 59 and the clear favorites but Ohtani is not himself right now. I played against him when he was with the Angels and he is as talented as anyone I have ever seen. When he is right he changes a game every time he steps to the plate or takes the mound. The good news for Los Angeles is their rotation can carry them even without a healthy Ohtani. Starting pitching is everything in the postseason. When your starters go deep into games it keeps your bullpen fresh and gives you a real advantage in a short series. Skubal, Yamamoto, Snell, and Glasnow healthy is as deep a rotation as anyone in baseball. If Sasaki get’s healthy and If Ohtani finds himself at the plate on top of that, they are going to be very difficult to beat.
Moving on to the Cubs, Pete Crow-Armstrong has 42 home runs and leads baseball in runs scored with 112. The Cubs are 84 and 67 and firmly in the wild card, nine and a half games back of the Brewers. PCA healthy in October makes Chicago one of the more dangerous teams in the field. If Clay Holmes comes back healthy, their rotation is better than people think. They have a lineup that can beat anyone on any given night.
THE SAVE
Here is my take on who is built for October.
The Brewers have the best record in the NL and Misiorowski has been the best pitcher in baseball with 236 strikeouts. But he is 24 and has never pitched in October. Postseason baseball has a way of testing young pitchers in ways the regular season never does. Higher stakes, more self-induced pressure to perform on the biggest stage. The hitters are geared up and locked in. That atmosphere can be a challenge when you get your first taste of it. How he handles that will go a long way toward determining how far Milwaukee goes.
The Rays are interesting. Kevin Cash and that entire organization do a great job of getting the most out of what they have. Tampa does more with less than almost any organization in baseball. Their pitching is always elite and this year is no different. The question with Tampa has always been offense. They have never had enough of it to make a deep October run. This year feels different. Junior Caminero has been one of the best players in baseball. If the offense can carry them the way the pitching always does, Tampa is a legitimate threat to go deep into October.
The Dodgers are still the favorites. Starting pitching wins in the postseason, and Los Angeles has more of it than anyone. As I said before, when your starters go deep, your bullpen stays fresh, and that matters more in October than any other time of year.
The Cubs are a dangerous team as well. PCA at the top of that lineup changes everything for them. He has 42 home runs and plays a brand of baseball that puts pressure on a defense every single inning. If Holmes comes back healthy, their rotation improves greatly. Give Craig Counsell a healthy roster, and he knows how to manage a playoff series.
Two weeks left. A lot can still change.
Talk soon, Z
The Save is a personal newsletter based on my own experiences, opinions, and recollections. The opinions expressed here are mine alone and do not represent any team, organization, union or employer past or present. When discussing players, contracts or organizational decisions I am sharing my perspective as a former player — not making legal or financial claims. When I share stories involving others I am telling them from my point of view. When I share tips or lessons I am sharing what worked for me. Always do your own research and consult professionals when making important decisions.