Hey, it’s Zack.
Two weeks ago I gave you my picks in this newsletter. Fair is fair. Here is the score.
THE ENTRANCE
The Wild Card round got me. I went 1 and 3. I took the Astros, the Red Sox and the Cubs. All three went home. The Braves were the only one I got right.
The Division Series went the other way. I took Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Milwaukee and Los Angeles. All four won. I had Milwaukee in four and Los Angeles in four. Both were exact.
So the four teams I picked to be here are the four teams here. I will take that and not say much more about the first round.
My World Series pick was the Dodgers over the Rays in six. That pick doesn’t look so good right now.
Milwaukee beat Los Angeles 7-4 for the second night in a row. The Brewers are up 2 and 0. Yoshinobu Yamamoto got eight outs. William Contreras had three hits, a home run and three runs batted in. This series goes to Los Angeles now, and the Dodgers have to win Wednesday.
Cleveland beat Tampa Bay 7-3 in the first game of the other series. Tampa Bay led 2 and 0 in the first inning. Cleveland scored in the sixth, the seventh, the eighth and the ninth. Nathaniel Lowe hit a two-run single in the eighth that put them ahead to stay. Cleveland had 14 hits. Game 2 is tonight in Tampa.
Both of my World Series teams lost on the same night. One is down two games. One is down one game to a team that just made an epic comeback in the previous series. It is one night in October though and I have seen this go every direction from here.
THE DELIVERY
Now look at who is left, and look at how they got built.
Los Angeles spent $338 million dollars on players this year. The other three teams spent 316 million put together. Milwaukee spent 143.5 million. Tampa Bay spent 98.3 million. Cleveland spent 74.2 million, the least in baseball. The Mets spent the most money in the game and missed the playoffs. The Yankees spent 304.6 million and Tampa Bay swept them in three games.
These three teams do use data. Every front office does now. They just do not use it the way people think. The book on teams like this says they hunt home runs and accept strikeouts. These three did the opposite. They built whole teams.
Tampa Bay hit .258, as good as anyone in baseball, and struck out fewer times than any team in the game. They hit more singles than anyone. They laid down more sacrifice bunts than anyone, 45 of them, and stole 164 bases. On defense they saved 86 runs, second most in baseball. Their pitchers walked fewer hitters per nine innings than any staff in the American League and finished with a 3.70 earned run average.
Cleveland pitches. They always have. Their staff struck out more hitters per nine innings than any team in the American League, and their earned run average was 3.77. Sixteen of the 26 players on their Division Series roster came up through their own system. They stole 146 bases and got caught less often than any team in their league. Jose Ramirez is the one star.
Milwaukee scored 832 runs, second most in baseball, and hit 154 home runs doing it. That home run total sat near the bottom of the league. They hit .258 as a team and stole 162 bases. Their pitching staff had the best earned run average in baseball at 3.51. You saw the bullpen on Monday. They retired the last 15 Dodgers in a row. The bullpen has given up one earned run in this whole postseason.
We used to call this small ball. Get on base. Move the runner over. Steal a bag when it is there. Catch the ball. Pitch. None of these teams wait around for a three-run homer to fix their night. When the ball is not leaving the park in October, and it usually is not, they still have a way to score.
I played against Tampa Bay for years. There was never an easy at-bat and never a loose inning. That is not an accident of payroll. That is a front office deciding what kind of team it wants and building all 26 spots to match.
Owners will say this winter that baseball needs a salary cap so teams like these can compete. They are competing. They are three of the last four standing. Money helps. Los Angeles is proof of that too. But it is not the only way to build a team, and this October is showing the other way every night.
THE SAVE
On October 8 the league made its new offer in bargaining. A 154-game season starting in 2029. The Division Series would go to seven games. The top seeds would pick their playoff opponents starting in 2027. Players would get most Mondays off.
I was not surprised by any of it. They made us a shortened season offer before. They hinted at picking your opponent for the playoffs too. I sat on the players subcommittee in 2021 and 2022, and I heard early versions of all of this in the room.
I am not against 154 games. That was the schedule for a long time. Baseball played 154 from 1904 until the American League went to 162 in 1961 and the National League followed a year later. Ruth played 154. Aaron and Mays played 154 for the first parts of their careers.
A regular Monday off would be good for players. It would not cost the league much either. Monday is one of the softest nights of the week at the gate. Last year the Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday crowds all sat around 26,000 a game. Saturday sat near 34,000. If you are going to take a night off, that is the night.
I do not think eight fewer games hurt the record book much. Players get a little more rest. The big records still get chased. That part of the offer is fine with me, and I have no reason to pretend otherwise.
There is a catch though. The union says none of these ideas are real unless players agree to a salary cap first. The cap is the fight. It was the fight in our room, and it is the fight now.
While these games are being played, the league sent owners a memo of 34 pages on how to run a lockout. No holiday cards to players once December 1 passes. Player faces come off the team websites. Stores can still sell shirts with the players names on them. I lived through one of these winters. I know how it starts, and it starts exactly like this.
The deal runs out on December 1. The best thing baseball has going for it right now is on the field, four teams playing good baseball in front of full parks. I hope the people who sit across the table from each other this winter remember that.
Talk soon, Z
The Save is a personal newsletter based on my own experiences, opinions, and recollections. The opinions expressed here are mine alone and do not represent any team, organization, union or employer past or present. When discussing players, contracts or organizational decisions I am sharing my perspective as a former player — not making legal or financial claims. When I share stories involving others I am telling them from my point of view. When I share tips or lessons I am sharing what worked for me. Always do your own research and consult professionals when making important decisions.