Hey, it's Zack.
The MLB Draft is July 11 in Philadelphia during All-Star Week.
For most fans it is a few hours of watching names get called and highlights get played. For the players involved it is the moment they have been working toward their entire lives. Some of them since they were twelve years old standing in a showcase in Arizona or Florida hoping a scout would notice.
I have been in that spot. Baltimore drafted me 85th overall in 2006. Third round. I was projected to go within the top three rounds and ended up right where I was expected. But knowing the projection and waiting for your name to actually come up are two very different things. Nobody can fully prepare you for that uncertainty.
THE ENTRANCE
When I was in high school you got noticed by playing well locally and hoping the right scout was in the stands. That is not how it works anymore. Events like Perfect Game and Prep Baseball Report run showcases across the country where players as young as thirteen and fourteen are being evaluated by scouts. Exit velocity. Arm strength. Sixty yard dash times. All tracked and logged before these kids are old enough to drive. By the time a player reaches his junior year of high school or college, scouts have typically seen him dozens of times. There are very few surprises on draft day because teams have been tracking these players for years.
The scouting process is not just about what you see on the field. Scouts talk to coaches. They talk to teammates. They research character and backgrounds. How a player handles failure matters as much as how he handles success.
Historically fans have been less invested in the MLB draft compared to the NFL or NBA. When those leagues draft a player he is on a roster within months. Fans can watch him immediately. Baseball does not work that way. The average first round pick takes three to four years to reach the major leagues. Some take longer. Some never make it. Only the diehards track the journey through the minor league stops.
First round picks reach the majors at a rate of 66 to 81 percent. By the second round that drops to roughly half. By the third round about 40 percent. Rounds eleven through twenty produce major leaguers at just 11 percent. Overall only about 17 percent of all drafted players ever play a single game in the big leagues.
That is part of why MLB moved the draft to All-Star Week six years ago. The draft has been broadcast nationally since 2020 and the audience has been growing. This year it is open to the public at the Pennsylvania Convention Center on July 11. The draft is getting the spotlight it deserves.
THE DELIVERY
First. The college versus high school debate never goes away.
College pitchers have the highest rate of reaching the major leagues of any group in the draft. They are more developed. More physically mature. Their mechanics are further along. What you see is much closer to what you are going to get.
But by the time a college pitcher reaches the draft he has already thrown a significant number of pitches at high intensity. College programs push their arms hard. Tommy John surgery rates for pitchers have gone from 29.8 percent in 2019 to 34.2 percent by 2024. Some of those arms were already breaking down before they ever reached a professional organization.
High school pitchers carry more risk in terms of projection but they also carry less mileage. The best ones become Clayton Kershaw and Roy Halladay. The worst ones never make it out of A ball. It is the highest risk highest reward decision in the entire draft. Neither college nor high school is automatically the right answer. It depends entirely on the organization and what they are built to develop.
Second. Draft day is never as predictable as it looks on paper.
The 2026 class has a clear consensus number one in UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky. He has been projected to go first overall for nearly a year. But the bonus pool system means nothing is guaranteed.
Every pick in the first ten rounds comes with an assigned slot value. A team's total bonus pool is the sum of all those values. If a team signs a player below his slot value they free up money to go above slot on another pick. That maneuvering happens before draft night even begins. Sometimes a team will pass on the consensus number one simply because another player agrees to take less money giving the team more flexibility across the entire draft.
We saw this last year. The Washington Nationals held the number one pick with Ethan Holliday and Kade Anderson considered the top options. Instead they took high school shortstop Eli Willits and signed him for $8.2 million. Nearly $3 million below slot. It shocked the industry. That savings was reallocated throughout the draft.
The White Sox hold the number one pick in 2026. Whether they can afford Cholowsky at full slot value is a real question.
Third. The catcher question.
Catching is the most demanding position on the field. I say that as someone who threw to them for a living. A catcher has to hit. Receive. Call a game. Manage a pitching staff and build relationships with ten or twelve different pitchers who all have different personalities and needs. That combination of skills is extraordinarily rare.
Only about one in six catchers drafted in the first round ever produce more than ten career WAR. Joe Mauer in 2001 became a Hall of Famer but is the rare exception. Adley Rutschman has shown flashes but dealt with injuries and inconsistency. Henry Davis taken first overall in 2021 is a reminder of how difficult it is to project at the catching position. Meanwhile two of the best catchers in baseball right now are JT Realmuto and Cal Raleigh. Realmuto was a third round pick. Raleigh was the 90th overall pick. The position does not follow the rules teams try to apply to it. When you use a top five pick on a catcher you are passing on a shortstop or pitcher who historically delivers more value. There is a catcher projected to go in the top five of this draft. History says that is a significant gamble.
Fourth. Where you get drafted determines everything.
A first round pick gets resources. Patience. Coaches who invest time in his development because the organization has too much riding on him to give up quickly.
A third round pick gets a much more modest bonus and a shorter leash. The margin for error is smaller. The players taken in rounds ten through twenty get even less runway. Many are released within two to three years.
Minor league pay has improved since the first MiLB collective bargaining agreement in 2023. A rookie level minor leaguer earns around $19,800 for a five month season. A Low A player earns around $26,600.
A first round pick with a multi million dollar bonus can spend his offseason investing in himself. Better food. Better training. Recovery tools. Private coaching. The things that separate good from great.
A player taken in rounds ten through twenty goes home in the offseason and has to figure it out. I played with guys who took seasonal jobs just to get by until spring training. That is a real competitive disadvantage that starts the moment you sign.
THE SAVE
I sat at my computer and watched my name get called in the third round. What I remember most is that I did not have high speed internet at the time. Each name felt like an eternity to load. You are sitting there waiting and the page is spinning and you do not know if your name just came up or if you have to keep waiting. That tension is something I will never forget.
The moment my name came up the phone started ringing. Friends. Family. Everyone at once. Then a call came in from Orioles scouting director Joe Jordan. Short and sweet. He said he was excited to have me and was looking forward to talking soon. That was it. But in that moment it was everything.
And then reality set in fast.
My advisor had to negotiate a contract with the Orioles. There was not much to negotiate. Third round picks get slot money. The number is pretty much set before your name is ever called. Sitting there listening to my advisor work through the details was a strange experience. Baseball had always just been baseball. Now it was a business. That was a big reality check for an 18 year old kid who just wanted to play.
Then I had to call the head baseball coach at Texas A&M and tell him I was not coming. My dad made me make that call myself. He was not going to do it for me.
That was the hardest call I made that day. I felt like I was letting him down. He understood. He held no hard feelings. But that did not make it any easier to dial the number.
Looking back I understand exactly why my dad made me do it myself. At 18 I did not fully appreciate the lesson. Now I do.
Once you sign it moves fast. Physical first. Then your assignment. The organization tells you where you are going and you report. Some get fanfare, others don't. Within days of the biggest moment of your life, you are on your way to a minor league town to start proving you belong.
Every player in this draft will have their own version of that day. The showcases behind them. The minor league buses ahead of them. And somewhere in between a moment that changes everything.
The draft is where the dream gets real. What you do with it after that is entirely up to you.
Talk soon, Z
The Save is a personal newsletter based on my own experiences, opinions, and recollections. The opinions expressed here are mine alone and do not represent any team, organization, union or employer past or present. When discussing players, contracts or organizational decisions I am sharing my perspective as a former player — not making legal or financial claims. When I share stories involving others I am telling them from my point of view. When I share tips or lessons I am sharing what worked for me. Always do your own research and consult professionals when making important decisions.