Hey, it's Zack.
October is here. The bracket is set. Twelve teams left standing after 162 games and now it all comes down to a short series.
I have been in October. I know what it feels like when the calendar flips and every game carries that weight. The preparation changes. The focus sharpens. The margin for error disappears.
Here is my take on every series.
THE ENTRANCE
Before we get into the matchups let me say something about October baseball.
The regular season rewards the best teams over 162 games. The postseason rewards the hottest teams over a short series. Those are not always the same thing. A team can win 98 games and get bounced in three by a team that won 82. It happens every year. The best rotation, the hottest lineup and the manager who makes the right decisions in the moment wins in October. Records do not matter anymore.
That is why this month never disappoints.
THE DELIVERY
AL WILD CARD
White Sox at Astros
The Astros won the AL West on the final day of the season. They finished 81-81 with a negative run differential. But they are home in October and the White Sox have to travel to Houston. Luis Castillo has not been the pitcher the White Sox needed when they traded for him. Their rotation is thin. The Astros have been winning close games all season and Yordan Alvarez is one of the most dangerous postseason hitters in baseball. This is a difficult spot for Chicago. The White Sox had a great story this season but the Astros are the more experienced October team.
Pick: Astros in 2
Red Sox at Yankees
This is the most compelling wild card matchup. The Red Sox were one of the hottest teams in baseball all season. Adley Rutschman is back in the lineup. Their lineup is dangerous. But they are walking into Yankee Stadium for a best of three series. The Yankees know how to win in October and their rotation is deep. Aaron Judge is out with a calf strain and the Yankees have been planning the roster without him. He took batting practice yesterday and is pushing to play, so that could change before rosters are set. Without Judge, I am taking the Red Sox. This series will come down to who pitches better in game one.
Pick: Red Sox in 3
NL WILD CARD
Phillies at Braves
The Phillies barely held off the Diamondbacks on the final day. They come in on fumes after a difficult final week. The Braves clinched on September 20 and are rested and locked in. Bryce Harper had a monster August but the Phillies have been inconsistent since. Atlanta has the pitching and the lineup to win this series convincingly.
Pick: Braves in 2
Cubs at Padres
This is the series I am most interested in. Pete Crow-Armstrong finished with 45 home runs and one of the best seasons any player has had in recent memory. The Cubs lineup is dangerous top to bottom. But the Padres are playing in San Diego and they added Robbie Ray at the deadline. He has been inconsistent since the move and Casey Mize is out for the season with an ankle injury.
Pick: Cubs in 3
ALDS
Yankees or Red Sox vs Rays
The Rays finished 98 and 64. The best record in the American League. Kevin Cash manages a bullpen and a rotation better than almost anyone in the game. Junior Caminero has been one of the best players in baseball all season. The Rays are built for October. Whoever comes out of the wild card round is going to face a team that is rested, healthy and playing in front of their home crowd for the first two games.
Pick: Rays in 4
Astros or White Sox vs Guardians
The Guardians won the AL Central on the final weekend of the season. They are playing their best baseball of the year at exactly the right time. Nathaniel Lowe and Jo Adell give them lineup depth they did not have earlier in the season. If the Astros get through the wild card they bring October experience that is hard to match. If the White Sox get through it will be one of the best stories of the postseason.
Pick: Guardians in 4
NLDS
Padres or Cubs vs Brewers
The Brewers finished 103 and 59 with the best record in the National League. Jacob Misiorowski has been the best pitcher in baseball and has never started a postseason game. That is the one question mark for Milwaukee. The Brewers bullpen is deep. Aaron Ashby has been outstanding all season. If Misiorowski handles his first postseason start the Brewers are going to be very difficult to beat.
Pick: Brewers in 4
Braves or Phillies vs Dodgers
The Dodgers are going for their third straight World Series title. They have Skubal, Yamamoto, Snell and Glasnow. Ohtani is back in the lineup but he is done pitching this year. If his bat is right this is the deepest team in baseball. The Braves are well managed and have real October experience. But the Dodgers are built for this moment and they know how to win when it matters most.
Pick: Dodgers in 4
THE SAVE
My World Series pick is Dodgers vs Rays.
The Dodgers are the class of the National League. Their rotation is the deepest in baseball and they have won this before. Two straight titles give them a confidence and a process that is hard to replicate. If Ohtani is healthy at the plate they are nearly impossible to beat.
The Rays are the team in the AL that concerns me most. Kevin Cash maximizes every player on his roster. Junior Caminero gives them an offensive threat that Tampa has never really had in October. Their pitching is elite. If the offense shows up the Rays can beat anyone.
My pick is Dodgers in six. But I would not be surprised by anything that happens in October. That is what makes it the best month in baseball.
Talk soon, Z
The Save is a personal newsletter based on my own experiences, opinions, and recollections. The opinions expressed here are mine alone and do not represent any team, organization, union or employer past or present. When discussing players, contracts or organizational decisions I am sharing my perspective as a former player — not making legal or financial claims. When I share stories involving others I am telling them from my point of view. When I share tips or lessons I am sharing what worked for me. Always do your own research and consult professionals when making important decisions.