Hey, it's Zack.
Let me start with a number.
$140 million.
That is what the Pittsburgh Pirates gave Konnor Griffin less than one week after he made his major league debut. He is 19 years old. He graduated high school in 2024.
And Griffin is not alone.
THE ENTRANCE
Here is a quick look at what has happened recently.
Colt Emerson signed an 8 year $95 million deal with the Mariners before he ever played a major league game.
Cooper Pratt signed an 8 year $50.75 million deal with the Brewers before his debut.
Jackson Chourio signed an 8 year $82 million deal with the Brewers at 19 years old, also before his debut.
Kristian Campbell signed an 8 year $60 million deal with the Red Sox after just five games in his big league career.
Roman Anthony signed an 8 year $130 million deal with Boston before reaching a full year of service time.
Samuel Basallo signed an 8 year $67 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles after just four games in his major league career.
And then Griffin. Nine years. $140 million. Five days of major league experience.
If you go back some more you have Corbin Carroll, Julio Rodriguez, Luis Robert Jr. and others who signed large extensions with minimal service time. This is not a completely new thing. Evan Longoria got a deal done with Tampa Bay just six games into his career almost twenty years ago. But the money has never been bigger and the pace has never been faster.
This is a trend worth talking about. Because depending on what type of player you are, it means very different things.
So what is actually going on here?
THE DELIVERY
Let me give you a few angles on this.
First, from the player's side.
I am never going to roll my eyes at a young player taking life changing money. Never. When someone puts $80 million or $130 million on the table before you have proven yourself at the highest level, that changes your family's life. Your parents. Your siblings. Generations. You have worked your entire life for that moment and none of us knows what tomorrow looks like. Injuries happen. Underperformance happens. The player who turns that down to bet on himself is taking a real risk.
But here is a question worth asking.
If the organization values you this much before you have played a single inning at the big league level, what do they know? What metrics are they using? What does their projection model say about your future value that makes them this confident? Because if they are that sure you are going to be a star, maybe you should be that sure too. And if you are that sure, what is the rush to lock in now before you have proven it yourself?
I won’t pretend this is an easy spot to be in.
There is something else worth understanding about how these deals actually work. When a team signs a young player before he has proven himself at the big league level they are paying for what they believe he will become. That is a projection. A bet on future production. Free agency works the opposite way. By the time a player reaches free agency he has typically spent six or more years in the big leagues. The market has seen what he can do. He is being compensated based on what he has already proven, usually in the prime years of his career. That is a fundamental difference. One side is buying potential. The other is buying a track record. Which one do you think carries more risk for the player or the team?
And if you are a team that truly believes in your own projections, the math makes sense. Pay a player $95 million or $140 million now before he establishes himself. Because if those projections are right and he becomes the next Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto or Aaron Judge, you might be writing a check between $300 million and $700+ million. The window to get ahead of that is exactly what these teams are trying to capitalize on.
Second, the agent dynamic.
The agencies representing these players matter. Beverly Hills Sports Council represents both Campbell and Chourio. CAA represents Carroll and Basallo. These are respected, established agencies with Hall of Fame clients. But some agents have been publicly critical of this trend, suggesting that front offices specifically seek out agencies that are newer or have fewer clients, knowing those agencies may be more inclined to accept below market deals.
The player and his agent make the final call. That is how it should be. But every player deserves to walk into that room with a full picture of what he is agreeing to and what he might be leaving behind.
Third, and this is the part nobody is talking about enough.
What does this trend do to everyone else?
When a player like Griffin or Chourio signs a long term deal before reaching arbitration, they are removed from a system that was designed to gradually increase player compensation as they prove their value. Arbitration salaries are set in part by precedent. When the players who would have been the biggest movers in that market are already locked in under long term deals, the ceiling for everyone below them gets harder to raise.
The mid tier player. The solid veteran. The guy who is good but not great. He is the one who feels this most. The stars are taken care of before they even arrive. The top of the free agent market is protected by the players who bet on themselves and wait. But the middle? That market gets squeezed from both ends.
When the market setting players are under contract before they establish their value, it trickles down to the next tier of players on every MLB roster trying to increase their value. That is the part of this conversation that does not make headlines.
An important thing worth pointing out. When a small market team like the Pittsburgh Pirates commits $140 million to a 19 year old who has played five games in the big leagues, it raises a question fans have been asking for years. Where has that money been? The Pirates have received revenue sharing checks every single season. That money is specifically designed to help smaller market teams compete by supplementing their roster budgets. Yet Pittsburgh has consistently fielded one of the lowest payrolls in baseball. So when they find millions for a prospect who has not yet proven himself at the big league level, it tells you the money was always there. The question was never whether they could spend it. The question was whether they were willing to. For Pirates fans who have watched this organization collect revenue sharing money and field a non competitive roster year after year, this contract is either a sign that things are finally changing or a very expensive way to keep those fans patient a little longer.
The current CBA expires on December 1, 2026. A lockout is widely considered all but guaranteed at this stage. Owners are pushing hard for a salary cap. Rules around how young players get paid could change dramatically under the next deal. Getting a nine figure commitment done before the rules of the game potentially change is smart business for the organization. Whether it is equally smart for the player is debatable.
THE SAVE
I will be watching to see the impact these early deals have on arbitration and free agent contracts in the years to come. Teams are always looking for an edge. A way to stay competitive longer, with young, talented rosters. Will more players jump at the early money thrown at them and ultimately change an arbitration and free agent system teams have been trying to alter for decades? Maybe MLB teams don’t need a salary cap after all. Not if they are proactive and sign the best players to long term deals at the moment when even the most talented player is still young enough to doubt himself and not yet confident enough to bet on his own future.
Talk soon, Z
The Save is a personal newsletter based on my own experiences, opinions, and recollections. The opinions expressed here are mine alone and do not represent any team, organization, union or employer past or present. When discussing players, contracts or organizational decisions I am sharing my perspective as a former player — not making legal or financial claims. When I share stories involving others I am telling them from my point of view. When I share tips or lessons I am sharing what worked for me. Always do your own research and consult professionals when making important decisions.