Competitive balance. The phrase everyone uses and nobody actually defines.

Hey, it's Zack.

Get ready. You are about to hear the phrase competitive balance approximately one million times between now and December 1.

MLB will say it. The MLBPA will say it. Every analyst, every insider, every hot take account on social media will say it. And almost nobody will actually explain what it means.

So let's fix that right now.

Because competitive balance is not some abstract negotiating buzzword. It is the entire reason fans in Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay show up to the ballpark every April still allowing themselves to hope. And right now both sides are using that hope as a bargaining chip.

THE ENTRANCE

Here is the blunt version of competitive balance. Does every team actually have a shot?

Not an equal shot. Nobody is asking for that. A legitimate shot. The kind that makes a fanbase believe their team could realistically be playing in October if a few things break right.

Eleven years ago the Kansas City Royals won the World Series. Eleven years. Since then every single champion has come from one of the fifteen biggest markets in baseball. Thirty one of the forty teams that have reached the League Championship Series since 2015 came from those same fifteen markets.

Now look at the payroll gap. Last season the top half of MLB payroll teams averaged 87 wins. The bottom half averaged 75. Eight of the ten playoff spots went to top half payroll teams. The Mets' top two players alone make more money than the entire Tampa Bay Rays roster combined.

And yet. The Rays keep winning. The Brewers keep winning. The Guardians keep winning.

This is where it gets messy.