Hey, it's Zack.
The playoffs start September 29. Before we get there I want to spend one more issue on something that is going to define the offseason and potentially the 2027 season.
The CBA expires December 1. A lockout is coming. I have been covering pieces of this story all season and I want to bring it all together before October gets here.
THE ENTRANCE
A lockout is not a strike. When players go on strike they choose to stop working. When owners implement a lockout they choose to stop letting players work. Owners lock players out of facilities, freeze all transactions and shut the sport down until a new agreement is reached.
The reason owners use it is leverage. The moment a lockout begins free agency stops. Trades stop. Winter meetings are cancelled. Players who were about to sign contracts cannot sign them. Players who need to rehab at team facilities cannot do that either.
The pressure on players is real and the owners know it. Players have a finite career. Every day of a lockout is a day they cannot earn. For a young player waiting to sign his first free agent deal a lockout can cost him months of income and service time he will never get back. For a veteran in the final years of his career it can be even more painful. The lockout is designed to create urgency on the players' side.
THE DELIVERY
Baseball has been through nine work stoppages since 1972. Two of them left a significant mark on the sport.
The 1994 strike is the one everyone talks about. Players walked out on August 12 over owner demands for a salary cap. Acting commissioner Bud Selig cancelled the rest of the season on September 14, including the World Series. It was the first time any major American professional sport had cancelled its entire postseason over a labor dispute. 232 days. 948 games. No World Series champion. The damage to baseball's relationship with its fans took years to repair.
The issue at the center of 1994 was a salary cap. The owners wanted one. The players refused. That fight was never resolved. It was postponed. And now it is back.
The 2021 lockout lasted 99 days. The first two series of the season were cancelled and rescheduled as doubleheaders but a full 162 game schedule was preserved. Opening Day was pushed back one week to April 7. A deal was reached on March 10. The new CBA included increased minimum salaries, a pre-arbitration bonus pool, a 12 team playoff format and universal DH. The salary cap was never seriously discussed. The owners tabled it and the players refused to engage. Both sides moved on and agreed to a five year deal knowing this fight was coming.
When a lockout begins, the league office instructs all 30 clubs to freeze all transactions. Players are banned from team facilities. They cannot use training equipment, training staffs or medical personnel employed by their clubs. A player who needs surgery or rehabilitation during a lockout is largely on his own until a new deal is reached. The MLBPA should be better prepared this time around to help players access training facilities and health care services after experiencing these issues during the last lockout.
The MLBPA has been building toward this financially for years. Total assets now stand at $519 million, more than double what they had heading into the 2021 lockout. The liquid portion of that, roughly $415 million in cash and investments, is what could be distributed to players during a work stoppage. During the last lockout players could opt in to receive payments. Most high salaried players did not take the money.
The owners have their own war chest. Each of the 30 clubs has set aside approximately $75 million, giving the owners a combined fund of roughly $2 billion. Both sides have strong nest eggs to weather this storm if they choose.
MLB's national TV deals with Fox, ESPN, NBC and Netflix all expire after the 2028 season. Forbes has reported that the national TV deals include language that would push the contracts past 2028 for an additional year if a certain threshold of games is missed. Instead of negotiating new deals in 2028 MLB would be stuck in their current contracts through 2029.
The timing of that extension matters. The NFL may be renegotiating their own TV deals in 2029. The 2030 World Cup US television rights will also be in play. Networks that might have spent heavily on MLB in 2028 could redirect that money toward the NFL and soccer in 2029. Delaying MLB's negotiations by one year could cost the sport billions in lost revenue.
Nobody from MLB or their network partners has publicly disclosed exactly how many games need to be missed to trigger the extension. During the 2021 lockout teams needed to broadcast between 138 and 150 games to avoid rebates to networks. The owners know where that line is. Every missed regular season game in 2027 brings them closer to crossing it.
But missing enough games to push their TV deals into 2029 could cost them far more than the $2 billion they have set aside. That is a financial reality both sides are well aware of.
THE SAVE
The owners are proposing a salary cap of $245 million and a salary floor of $171 million. They want free agents limited to five-year maximum contracts when they switch teams, with six years allowed if they stay put. They want to eliminate anyone under the age of 20 from the draft, which would remove all high school players and some junior college players from eligibility. We covered this in depth in our draft overhaul issue earlier this season.
The players are not interested in any of it. Multiple players surveyed by ESPN said there is essentially zero openness to a salary cap. MLBPA interim executive director Bruce Meyer called a salary cap “the ultimate excuse not to compete.” One high-ranking team official told ESPN's Jeff Passan the owners are prepared to jeopardize the 2027 season to get the cap.
I have been on the MLBPA subcommittee. I know how these negotiations work. When the gap is this wide this late a lockout is not a threat. It is a plan.
I expect the lockout will happen on or around December 1. The question is how long it lasts and whether it costs the 2027 season. Both sides have money set aside. Both sides say they are willing to hold firm. The owners want a cap. The players will not accept one. Something has to give.
Deals usually get done. But 1994 taught both sides the worst case is real. Baseball lost a generation of fans in 1994. Neither side wants that again. Whether that shared understanding is enough to get a deal done before games are missed is the only question that matters right now.
The playoff preview is next week.
Talk soon, Z
The Save is a personal newsletter based on my own experiences, opinions, and recollections. The opinions expressed here are mine alone and do not represent any team, organization, union or employer past or present. When discussing players, contracts or organizational decisions I am sharing my perspective as a former player — not making legal or financial claims. When I share stories involving others I am telling them from my point of view. When I share tips or lessons I am sharing what worked for me. Always do your own research and consult professionals when making important decisions.